There Shall Be Only One (Bank, that is)

It's too early for March Madness, but here's a pool you can play if you're in the financial services industry - September Madness (click here for a larger version):



HT: Barry Ritholtx

A Guide To The Economic Meltdown For Grad Students

If you're a graduate student and worried about how the recent economic turbulence effects you, fear not. The good folks at PhdComics.com have put together a handy guide (click on the picture for a larger version).

New $700 Billion Hedge Fund

Just to show that not everything in the financial markets is doom and gloom, it turns out that a very large new hedge fund just opened its doors.

HT: one of my readers.

Buffett Buys A Piece of Goldman

It's a good time to be teaching Corporate Finance. Buffett's latest move (making a substantial investment in Goldman Sachs) is bound to make it into a lot of class discussions. The Wall Street Journal's take (at least, as expressed by Georgetown finance professor James Angel) is

Berkshire's plan "is a sign of confidence from one of the nation's most respected investors," said James Angel, a finance professor at Georgetown University, who added that "sharp investors" now are "sniffing around the wreckage of the credit crunch to pick up good assets on the cheap."

I think the second part of the statement is closer to the truth than the first. Here's what the Sage of Omaha gets for his money

The deal is structured in two parts, giving Berkshire a stream of cash and potential ownership of roughly 10% of Goldman. Berkshire will spend $5 billion on "perpetual" preferred shares of Goldman. These are not convertible into equity but pay a fat 10% dividend.

Berkshire also will get warrants granting it the right to buy $5 billion of Goldman common stock at $115 a share, which is 8% below the 4 p.m. closing share price Tuesday of $125.05. At Goldman's roughly $50 billion market value, based on that closing price, exercising those warrants would give Berkshire about a 10% stake in Goldman.

So, while the preferred isn't convertible, he gets what is essentially "synthetic convertible preferred". In essence, he gets his preferred payouts if the stock price doesn't rise, and the option to buy stock at a discount if the price is above $115. So, in effect he has a combination of preferred stock and an in-the-money call option. Barry Ritholtz prices the warrants at approximately $1.5 Billion, giving Buffett an effective yield of 14%, and cites another source who estimates their worth at $3.5B, and a yield of 17%.

Once again, Buffett has been able to make an investment at a very attractive price. In times where there's a lot of turmoil, having cash on hand makes it easy to buy companies (or parts of them) at a bargain, and according to Berkshire's first quarter, they had $31 Billion on hand. So, Buffett had cash at a time when Goldman desperately needed it. As a result, he got a great deal.

Just Damn. That guy is smart.

Flaming Wheelchairs

This has nothing to do with finance. Absolutely nothing.

But it caught my eye, and I thought making a blog post with that title would be kind of fun. In addition (as Dave Barry would say), it would make a good name for a rock bank.

Enough bloggery. Time to torture some data.

Another Crazy Couple of Days

It's been a busy few days. On Saturday, Unknown Son and I took part in his Cub Scout troop's annual popcorn sale outside a local supermarket.

I gave him a little coaching on the way over (i.e. make sure you ask everyone that comes out, look them in the eye, don;t take the first "no" without asking again, and so on). The kid absolutely hung the moon. He sold about 50% more than the other two kids that were there, and the grownups standing around really got a kick out of watching him. It's hard to say no to a determined, charming, and extremely cute 9-year old (of course, I'm completely unbiased).

Sunday was mostly used for prepping for my week's classes (I teach MBAs on Monday evenings, and other classes on Tuesdays and Thursdays). Unfortunately, U.S. started getting a fever Sunday night. We took him into the oncology clinic Monday morning (he had a regular appointment set up anyway), and they sent us home, feeling that it was likely a virus of some kind (no evidence of anything on his scans, and no signs of a bacterial infection). But, by the time I got out of class at 9:00, his fever was spiking to 103.

The doctor didn't seem to feel like he needed to come back in (it's about a 30 mile drive), so we gave him Tylenol, Motrin, and a cool bath, and his fever eventually broke around 1:00 in the morning.

So, I guess I start the week sleep deprived. What else is new.

ed: I had previously written that Unknown Son was 19. That's only in his ability to argue. Chronologically, he's only 9.

Another Paper Done

I spent most of the last week working on a paper for a conference deadline on Monday. We managed to get the thing done Sunday night (I was in my office until 1:00 a.m. Sunday morning), and planned on submitting it Monday after one last quick read-through. Of course, on Monday morning we got an email announcing that the deadline had been extended. We should have expected it since this happens almost every year for this conference (the Eastern Finance Association annual meeting).

So, we gave the paper one last thorough going over. It was sent out today. It' s early, and the paper will need a lot more work (and polishing) before it's ready to submit to a journal. But the initial results look good, and it's always satisfying to have a finished version (even if it's preliminary) of a paper.

I like working with these coauthors. It's the first time I've worked simultaneously with two fellow alumni of the Unknown Alma Mater, and the initial experience has been very, very good.